MPs on Syria airstrikes, November-December 2015

This is a very rough and ready attempt to look at what public evidence exists as to the balance of opinion in Parliament on the Government's proposal for airstrikes against ISIS in Syria, ahead of a likely vote in November 2014. It is mostly based on public statements, although it also uses some unattributed reports, such as those of shadow cabinet meetings. Given the considered statements coming from MPs, its sometimes a fine judgement whether or not MPs are leaning one way of the other, and many are likely to take no position until a vote. The relevant evidence used for each MP is included in references below.

MPs leaning towards airstrikes

Conservative Party

Most of the Conservative party are expected to support the Prime Minister's call for airstrikes.

• Edward Argar - 'just as actions have consequences, so does inaction'.
• Andrew Bingham - 'I will support the motion when it is put to the House.'
• Crispin Blunt - 'the United Kingdom should play a full role in the coalition.'
• David Cameron - 'The reason for acting is the very direct threat that ISIL poses to our country and to our way of life.'
• James Cartlidge - 'Does the Prime Minister agree that the only practicable way for us to hold the leadership of ISIL to account for these crimes against humanity is to engage in the type of military action that he is proposing?'
• Christopher Chope - ' I support an ISIL-first strategy, but can my right hon. Friend explain how we will succeed with that strategy if it is not shared by Turkey, which seems to be more interested in bombing Kurds than in bombing ISIL?'
• Kenneth Clarke - 'The Prime Minister has made a compelling case for playing a proper part'.
• David T.C. Davies - 'This time we have a much clearer strategy'.
• Philip Davies - 'I am prepared to support the Prime Minister in military action against Islamic State, which poses a severe and direct threat to us, but not against Assad, who does not.'
• Nadine Dorries - 'If the attack, God forbid, had happened in London and not in Paris, I believe that today the British people would be outraged, dismayed and upset that our allies did not have our back'.
• Nigel Evans - 'I will support any motion that he brings forward to take action against ISIS in Syria'.
• Liam Fox - 'The question is whether we confront them over there or, increasingly, take the risk of having to confront them over here.'
• Lucy Frazer - 'If each of our allies independently said, “Well, others are involved and therefore we don’t need to get involved”, how would we ever defeat ISIS?'
• Cheryl Gillan - 'there can be no doubt that we would bring a specific military capability'
• John Glen - 'I welcome today’s comprehensive analysis and clear plan, and I support the Prime Minister'.
• James Gray - '[The Prime Minister has] 'led opinion in the House and throughout the country to favour taking the right move, which is striking against ISIS wherever it may be.'
• Gerald Howarth - 'It makes no sense to stop at the Iraqi border today.'
• Bernard Jenkin - ' I commend my right hon. Friend’s approach as set out in his statement, particularly that he is working with our allies.
• David Jones - 'Ths country should plays its part in helping to defeat [ISIL].'
• Jeremy Lefroy - 'I thank the Prime Minister for his considered statement, which I very much support.'
• Stephen Metcalfe - 'May I offer my right hon. Friend my complete support for the approach that he is taking?'
• Andrew Mitchell - Is this not the way in which we discharge our responsibility to protect innocent civilians, both here in the United Kingdom and in Syria?
• Penny Mordaunt - Retweeted 'Why we must take action against ISIL in Syria as part of a wider strategy' by David Cameron.
• James Morris - ' The Prime Minister is absolutely right to say that ISIL/Daesh needs to be taken on in its physical territory in northern Iraq and Syria.'
• Andrew Percy - 'I voted against action last time, but I am increasingly likely to support action this time, as long as it is against ISIS and does not involve ground troops.'
• Stephen Phillips - 'My right hon. Friend has made a reasoned and principled case for why we must act in Syria'.
• Rebecca Pow - 'Will the Prime Minister confirm that he will push ahead with the measures to defeat this ideology and include a plan to care for Syrians who genuinely have to flee and eventually return'.
• Amanda Solloway - 'I welcome the opportunity to stand shoulder to shoulder with our two closest military allies, France and the USA'.
• Bob Stewart - ' I ask that we bring that highly potent gesture to a vote of this House as soon as next week.'
• Tom Tugendhat - 'They are a vile, satanic death cult and they must be stopped.'
• Robin Walker - 'The Prime Minister has made a compelling case and set out a comprehensive strategy, one of the most compelling elements of which was how Britain’s precision capabilities can save civilian lives.'
• Helen Whately - 'Is now not the time to step up our commitment and take the fight to their stronghold in Syria?'
• Sarah Wollaston - 'The Prime Minister has made a compelling and considered case today.'

Labour Party

A majority of the shadow cabinet and many other Labour MPs are said to support airstrikes despite the opposition of the Labour leader.

• Heidi Alexander - 'argued for intervention' - New Statesman.
• Hilary Benn - 'leaning in favour of military action' - Guardian.
• Vernon Coaker - 'argued for intervention' - New Statesman.
• Ann Coffey - 'said she would be backing airstrikes, adding that she would be ‘giving herself a free vote’ even if Labour whips told her to oppose the move - Manchester Evening News.
• Michael Dugher - 'spoke up on Thursday in support of military action' - Guardian.
• Angela Eagle - 'argued for intervention' - New Statesman.
• Caroline Flint - ' told the Sunday Politics she believes there can be a case for British military intervention in Syria' - BBC.
• Mike Gapes - 'said he is prepared to rebel against the party leadership over UK air strikes in Syria'. BBC.
• Kate Hoey - ' The agenda is to help others, including our allies, to degrade, deflate and ultimately destroy ISIL'.
• Dan Jarvis - ' If the prime minister can show he has a wider strategy to do that, he will have my support.'
• Liz Kendall - Told BBC 'I would support it' given commitments on reconstruction etc.
• Peter Kyle - 'If the Prime Minister and the International Development Secretary can reassure us [on reconstruction], he will be able to count on my support.'
• Chris Leslie - 'What would it say about our judgment if we failed to take heed of the appeal from the United Nations?.'
• Lucy Powell - 'spoke up on Thursday in support of military action' - Guardian.
• Tom Watson - 'leaning in favour of military action' - Guardian.
• John Woodcock - "This new attack should prompt the government and all political parties to look afresh at the case for extending the air campaign".

DUP

• Nigel Dodds - 'If it protects our people, here and abroad, we must act'.

MPs leaning against airstrikes

Labour Party

The Labour leader is opposed to airstrikes in Syria, as are a minority in the Shadow Cabinet and many Labour MPs.

• Diane Abbott - Supported Corbyn in Shadow Cabinet - New Statesman.
• Richard Burgon - 'I'm not persuaded'.
• Dawn Butler - States 'my fear is that bombs will make things worse, not better' but adds 'My mind is not closed on this.'
• Ruth Cadbury - 'As a Quaker, this is a matter of conscience for me, and I will therefore not support military action in Syria.'
• Ronnie Campbell - ' said he would oppose bombing Syria if a Commons vote was held' - Chronicle Live.
• Jeremy Corbyn - 'In my view, the Prime Minister has been unable to explain the contribution of additional UK bombing'.
• John Cryer - Supported Corbyn in Shadow Cabinet - New Statesman.
• Paul Flynn - 'absurd policy that will increase terrorist recruits'.
• Roger Godsiff - "What I'm not convinced of is dropping more bombs on Syria is going to add anything to the defeat of ISIS"
• Nia Griffith - 'against Cameron's plan' - Guardian.
• Rupa Huq - 'Explained on @BBCNews my scepticism of UK launching air strikes on Syria'.
• David Lammy- "We have Russia flying planes, we have the French flying planes, we have the Americans flying planes, we have the Turkish. It's not entirely clear what it would add."
• Fiona Mactaggart - 'agrees with [Corbyn] in opposing British intervention in Syria' - Independent.
• John McDonnell - "I’m still in a situation where I’ve expressed the view that I’m opposed to the bombing campaign or engagement."
• Ian Mearns - 'I just don’t see that the Prime Minister made a compelling case to be going into military action' - Chronicle Live.
• Madeleine Moon - 'Why is it not right for us to help our allies by clearing the problem of Daesh in Iraq, building a pluralistic state in which Sunnis see a potential future that they can support, and taking the commitment to Iraq before we move on to Syria?'.
• Jonathan Reynolds - ' I’m really quite sceptical this is the strategy we need and I’m not tremendously convinced by Cameron’s statement' - Manchester Evening News.
• Gavin Shuker - 'I am opposed to the proposed action in Syria, but for the Labour Party not to have a collective position on it is frankly untenable'.
• Dennis Skinner - 'Skinner has warned of the perils of Britain intervening in the Syrian civil war' - Independent.
• Wes Streeting - ' I fear we will be inevitably drawn into a quagmire.'
• Graham Stringer - 'it’s a marginal military impact and is likely to make things worse rather than better' - Manchester Evening News.
• Emily Thornberry - 'I listened with great care to what the Prime Minister said because I wanted to hear about the strategy and the plan, but I am disappointed because I fear it is very thin.'
• Jon Trickett - Supported Corbyn in Shadow Cabinet - New Statesman.
• David Winnick - 'would military action help to defeat ISIS? I happen to believe that the answer is no.'

SNP

The SNP are expected to vote against airstrikes.

• Alan Brown - 'Getting that political strategy agreed is more important than saying, “I hope it will come with air strikes.'
• Lisa Cameron - 'The Prime Minister said that the proposed air involvement could be sustained for many months. Will he give us further clarification?'
• Ronnie Cowan - 'Would he concede that if the Chilcot inquiry had produced its report, we would be better informed as to how best to handle this complex situation?'
• Stephen Gethins - ' I do not believe that he has yet answered our questions adequately on issues such as ground troops or a long-term strategy.'
• Patrick Grady 'How much will the £1 billion put aside for reconstruction today compare with the total cost of the planned military action, given that the Prime Minister spent 13 times as much on bombing Libya as he did on reconstruction?'
• Peter Grant - 'A ceasefire among the warring non-Daesh factions in and around Syria is not a striving for perfection, but an absolute requirement.'
• George Kerevan - 'Will the Prime Minister give us his best estimate of the likelihood in reasonable time of a ceasefire between the major non-Daesh forces in Syria that would allow an effective deployment of ground troops to take and hold Daesh territory?'.
• Stewart Malcolm McDonald - ' How can he ensure that the snake is not in fact a Hydra that will emerge stronger in other parts of the region, such as Libya or Tunisia?'.
• Paul Monaghan - 'Parliament Street today outside my office. Thousands demonstrating against the intention to destroy Syria.'
• Gavin Newlands - 'Will he explain how and when he envisages installing a Government that would represent and be supported by all sides in the aftermath of a bloody and immensely complicated civil war?'
• Brendan O'Hara - 'The Prime Minister is on the record as saying that the UK’s unique contribution to the fight against Daesh is the Brimstone missile, but will he confirm that the Royal Saudi air force has been using the Brimstone missile against Daesh since February?'
• Kirsten Oswald - 'Only a few weeks ago, the FAC heard that there appeared to be little chance of a legitimate and functioning ally emerging from the chaos on the ground any time soon. What has changed?'
• Steven Paterson - 'Given the shooting down of the Russian plane by Turkey, one of our NATO allies, and the massive dangers that entails in terms of escalation, can he say a little more on the communications strategy between the anti-Daesh forces that he foresees?'.
• Angus Robertson - 'key questions posed by the FAC remain unanswered, and unless he answers them satisfactorily, the SNP will not vote for airstrikes in Syria.'
• Tommy Sheppard - 'Is their view and advice to this House that a successful ground offensive can be undertaken against Daesh in Syria without the involvement or without reference to the existing Syrian armed forces?'
• Philippa Whitford - 'We will not bomb them out of existence, and we know that this may well increase recruitment of extremists here.'

Liberal Democrats

The Liberal Democrats are expected to vote against airstrikes.

• Tim Farron - co-signed letter setting out five tests for action.
• Nick Clegg - co-signed letter setting out five tests for action.

SDLP

• Mark Durkan - 'Does [the Prime Minister] accept that those valid considerations against such intervention also persuade many of us against intervention on the terms he is commending?'

Plaid Cymru

Plaid Cymru's 3 MPs are expected vote against military action.

• Hywel Williams 'I ask [the Prime Minister] to examine his conscience and examine all choices short of bombing, as we all must.'
• Albert Owen - 'My question to him is simply this: if increased bombing leads to increased refugees, will he reconsider the figure he has put on the number of refugees?'

Green Party

• Caroline Lucas - 'will [the Prime Minister] directly address the vital concerns that come through very strongly in the evidence to the Select Committee report that our ability to continue that key political and diplomatic role will be compromised fundamentally if we join the bombing?'

MPs said to be undecided

Conservative Party

• Graham Brady - 'before a vote in the House of Commons I want to be completely confident that this is only about degrading Isis terrorist and is not a wider intervention in Syria or the Middle East' - Manchester Evening News.

Labour Party

• Chris Bryant - 'We don’t want to give Isis a free pass but we also don’t want to give Cameron carte blanche for this.'
• Richard Burden - "hope the above along with the links I have included gives you an idea of the considerations that will be in the forefront of my mind as I decide how to cast my vote."
• Andy Burnham - 'understood to be undecided about how to vote' - Guardian.
• Sarah Champion - 'I've not decided either way!'
• Yvette Cooper - 'understood to be undecided about how to vote' - Guardian.
• Simon Danczuk - 'said he would be studying the arguments this weekend' - Manchester Evening News.
• Clive Efford - ' Will he come back to us with more details, in order to convince us that action will result in the outcome that we desire?'
• Kate Green - 'Kate will be holding a number of events to meet and hear from constituents this weekend'
• Mike Kane - 'For those in the House who are still uncertain, the weakness of the analysis is around the winnability strategy on the ground, and the need to not create a vacuum that will be filled by something worse.'
• Liz McInnes - 'I'm still weighing up the evidence'.

Other relevant comments from MPs

Conservative Party

• John Baron - 'Without answers to these questions, airstrikes will only reinforce the west’s failure in the region generally, at a time when already there are too many aircraft chasing too few targets.'
• Bob Blackman - 'Will my right hon. Friend explain how long this strategy will take to implement, given that we are clearly not going to get instantaneous results?'
• Peter Bone - 'Does the Prime Minister think there is room, perhaps even before next week, to get the Leader of the Opposition in and agree a draft motion with him?'.
• Rehman Chishti - 'In relation to defeating this evil organisation, its ideological appeal and its self-proclaimed legitimacy, our key ally France uses the term Daesh, and the French media now follow'.
• Richard Drax - 'I thank my right hon. Friend for his comprehensive statement this morning, but I caution him about ruling out the use of western ground troops.'
• Richard Fuller - ' Is the Prime Minister sure that that will not happen again as a consequence of the decisions that he makes after today?'
• Daniel Kawczynski - 'The Prime Minister will know that some of the regional tensions in the middle east and Syria stem from the mutual hostility and antagonism between Iran and Saudi Arabia.'
• Edward Leigh - 'I know that the Prime Minister will not want to say this in public now and eat his words, but we have to co-operate with Russia, Assad and the Syrian army if we are to complete a bombing war and look forward to the reconstruction after that.'
• Julian Lewis - 'I have to say that the suggestion that there are 70,000 non-Islamist, moderate, credible ground forces is a revelation to me and, I suspect, to most other Members in this House.'
• Peter Lilley - 'I would like him to convince me that what he refers to as the Free Syrian Army actually exists and is not a label that we apply to a rag-bag group of clans and tribal forces with no coherent force.'
• Alan Mak - 'Will [The Prime Minister] outline some of the key capabilities of the RAF that could be brought to bear in the region, and will he join me in paying tribute to its work?'
• Jason McCartney - 'Can the Prime Minister assure me that, if and when a proposal comes forward to mount air strikes against ISIL, there will be a co-ordination strategy between the various air forces that are taking action over Syria?'.
• David Mowat - 'The only apparent source of wealth for ISIL comes from onshore oil fields that do not require precision bombing to take out, yet we have made very little progress on this in the past year.'
• David Rutley - 'Like many in the House, I am pleased that today’s statement has a strong focus on post-conflict reconstruction. Can my right hon. Friend tell the House how widely that priority is shared by our EU allies such as Germany and by the nearby Arab states?
• Graham Stuart - ' will [the Prime Minister] tell us why he believes that the Russians and Iran would step back from backing Assad and attacking the Free Syrian Army when we attack the mortal enemy, Daesh?'
• Michael Tomlinson - 'Can the Prime Minister reassure me and my constituents that if military action is taken, he will not take his eye off the ball on a political settlement?'.
• Maggie Throup - 'Will my right hon. Friend assure the House—and, indeed, my constituents—that if a decision is made to extend air strikes into Syria, every effort will be made to keep people safe on the streets of Britain'.
• Bill Wiggin - ' In order to succeed, I hope the Prime Minister will not leave the House, given the supportive mood here, and use his considerable brilliance and resources to draft a crafty motion when what he needs to be doing is forming those coalitions of ground troops that we all agree we so badly need.'
• Craig Whittaker - 'The people of Calder Valley will rightly want to know one key thing, and that is whether British action in Syria will make a real difference to the situation on the ground and help to make us safer at home.'

Labour Party

• Graham Allen - 'There are many other strategic issues that need to be resolved, each of which is a harder longer road than deploying five aircraft.'
• David Anderson - 'Does the Prime Minister agree with his former Foreign Secretary, William Hague, and with John Bolton, the former US ambassador to the UN, that ultimately the world will have to redraw the map and create a Sunni state in northern Iraq and northern Syria?'
• Clive Betts - ' There will be Muslims in this country, particularly young Muslims, who, although they do not support ISIL/Daesh, are concerned about the UK being seen to take military action against other Muslims.'
• Kevin Brennan - 'he said that our bombing was likely to reduce civilian casualties because of the accuracy of our munitions. Surely that could happen only if our action replaces current less accurate bombing rather than adds to bombing that is taking place.'
• Liam Byrne - 'The truth is that the peshmerga, the Iraqi security forces and the Free Syrian Army will find it difficult to take those cities. If the political leaders are there, will he tell us who they are?'.
• Jo Cox (with Andrew Mitchell) - 'What is critical in advancing any military component is that the protection of civilians must be at the centre of the mission'.
• Stephen Doughty - 'Will [the Prime Minister] say more about the necessity of going after Daesh in the territory that it controls and how that impacts on actions here, recruitments and actions against this country’s citizens?.'
• Barry Gardiner - 'Until the Government can guarantee a strong ground presence, does [the Prime Minister] accept that his strategy is one of hope, not confidence?'.
• Diana Johnson - 'Does the Prime Minister think that chapter VII of the United Nations charter would need to be invoked to allow military action?
• Susan Elan Jones - ' Let us assume that the House gives its support to the Prime Minister for these air strikes. Can he outline how he and his Secretaries of State will update the House on what is happening?'
• Steve McCabe - 'I admire the sincerity and conviction of the Prime Minister, but if after months of intensive bombing the Free Syrian Army cannot take Raqqa and has become mired in atrocities it is committing, and there is limited progress on a wider settlement, what will he then ask this House to do?'
• Pat McFadden - 'What more can he say to convince the House and the country of his and his Government’s staying power on the diplomatic and political front, particularly at a time when big questions are being asked about Britain’s role in the world and how we see our place in the world?'.
• Alison McGovern - ' What plans is he bringing forward, with our international partners, to make sure that the economic future of Syria is sustainable at the point we can make it so?'.
• Ian Mearns - 'If we can defeat ISIL/Daesh militarily, given that the nature of the threat and the mindset of its members, does that mean eradicating every single man and woman with a connection?'.
• Andy Slaughter - 'Should not intervention follow the effective assembly of local ground forces and an international coalition, rather than be a catalyst for them?'.
• Keir Starmer - ' I assure the House that we all share the objective of defeating ISIS, but there are some critical questions, one of which, as the Prime Minister knows, is whether air strikes alone, without ground forces, can achieve the objective.'
• Derek Twigg - ' the issue of ground forces, which has been raised by other Members, is key, and today’s statement was weak in that regard.'
• Keith Vaz - 'an inevitable consequence of our intervention will be that the migration crisis will get much worse'.