Pandemics

This article is part of the Pharma_Portal project of Spinwatch.

Beginning in the 1980s, there have been regular predictions from the scientific community, governments, and the media about imminent or occurring pandemics (a pandemic is an epidemic of infectious disease that spreads through human populations across a large region). Reports in the media focus on raising alarm over the alleged seriousness of the disease concerned and predict high numbers of deaths.

It is instructive to look back over the history of these modern pandemics and see how many of these predictions have been borne out, and to what extent.

Heterosexual AIDS epidemic

Predictions: In 1987, a report in the New York Times announced, "AIDS May Dwarf the Plague". US News declared "the disease of them [homosexuals] suddenly is the disease of us [heterosexuals]". Oprah Winfrey stated on her TV show, "one out of five heterosexuals will be dead of AIDS by 1990" (that's about 50 million people). US health Secretary Otis Bowen said AIDS could make the Black Death seem "pale by comparison."

Reality: In 2008 the relatively few new cases of AIDS in heterosexual populations led the World Health Organization to declare the heterosexual AIDS epidemic, outside of Africa, over.

West Nile Virus

In 1999 in the North-East United States, including New York City, an outbreak occurred of a mosquito-borne illness called West Nile Virus.

Predictions: In 1999 the Competitive Enterprise Institute argued "for effective mosquito control polices and against environmental activists' efforts to prevent them". This meant multiple aerial sprayings of pesticides over New York City's streets, which were carried out. The pesticide sprayed was the extremely toxic malathion.

Reality: 28,943 human cases and 1130 deaths from 1999 through 2008 were reported as of February 13, 2009. Most cases of infection go unnoticed or produce mild symptoms. Some cases lead to encephalitis (inflammation of the brain) or meningitis (inflammation of the membranes surrounding the brain and spinal cord) and can be fatal. The elderly and individuals with compromised immune systems may be vulnerable to serious illness resulting from the virus.

A New York City Health Department survey of blood samples taken from people who lived in northern Queens, the epicenter of the 1999 outbreak, showed that 19 out of 677 tested positive for the virus. None of the 19 became seriously ill, and all either reported no symptoms or mild illness, such as a low-grade fever.

Aerial spraying of pesticides against West Nile Virus was blamed by some for the widespread die-off of lobsters and other crustaceans and the consequent death of the lobster-fishing industry. "The magnitude and suddenness of the 1999 die-off points to insecticide toxicity or pesticide runoffs," Bob Bayer, executive director of the Lobster Institute at the University of Maine, told a New York Times reporter. Bayer does not swallow a competing theory that a type of amoeba called Paramoebas was responsible. "Paramoebas would cause a gradual rather than a sudden change," he said.

Swine flu

See main article, Swine Flu.