Population Matters

This article is part of the Climate project of Spinwatch.

The Optimum Population Trust is a think tank and charity promoting "stabilisation and gradual population decrease globally and in the UK" as an environmental measure, but also as beneficial for the economy, development and for other social reasons.

Sir David Attenborough became a patron of the organisation in April 2009.

According to its website as of December 2009 the main aims of the OPT are:

1. To advance the education of the public in issues relating to human population worldwide and its impact on environmental sustainability;
2. To advance, promote and encourage research to determine optimum and ecologically sustainable human population levels in all or any part or parts of the world and to publicise the results of such research;
3. To advance environmental protection by promoting policies in the United Kingdom or any other part or parts of the world which will lead or contribute to the achievement of stable human population levels which allow environmental sustainability.

History

The trust was set up in 1991 by David Willey (now deceased) to monitor and discuss population trends and human carrying capacity. Their website states:

The need for this function was seen in the failure of UK governments to act on the recommendations of the Royal Commission on Population in 1949, the Parliamentary Select Committee on Science and Technology in 1971 and the Government Population Panel in 1973 to set up a mechanism for monitoring and policy guidance on issues affected by population changes - such as welfare, education, labour supply, population ageing, immigration and impact on the environment.

The need was also seen in a general neglect of the role of population pressure by bodies concerned with the relief of poverty and protection of the environment, and the consequent tendency of those bodies to promote ineffective or counterproductive policies.

Figures

The OPT says that 43% of births, or 80 million pregnancies a year are unwanted, and suggests policies which help to avoid them.

Population and environment

The OPT's chair Roger Martin attended the Global Humanitarian Forum in June 2009 as and is quoted in newspaper articles putting over the OPT's points. He argues:

there is not a single environmental problem that would not be easier to solve with fewer people, or harder and ultimately impossible to solve, with more.

and similarly:

A quarter of a million more people are born each day. Until we address that there's no point in doing anything else.

He claims that there is a taboo on discussing the impact of population on the environment and advocates an end to this taboo, leading to an open discussion on how to reduce population growth worldwide. He also promotes non-coercive policies which will support this (through contraception and education). He claims that this delusion on population "is the biggest single environmental problem that could quickly and easily be solved".

Martin said:

It’s always been obvious that total emissions depend on the number of emitters as well as their individual emissions – the carbon tonnage can’t shoot down as we want, while the population keeps shooting up.

Jonathon Porritt, former Sustainable Development Commission chair and patron of the OPT, claimed that reproductive policies are key to environment and development. He said:

Had there been no 'one child family' policy in China there would now have been 400 million additional Chinese citizens.

It should be noted that Porritt made this statement in a personal capacity rather than as a representative of the OPT and China's one-child policy has not been endorsed or commented on by the OPT or its website.

The OPT's central tenet is that all environmental impacts can be divided into the impact of each person multiplied by the number of people. Therefore reducing population immediately reduces impact. This assumption does not account for the role of government policy, corporations and other organisations who create the demand for goods through advertising and major deals which are out of the public sphere, such as weapons/defense contracts (the arms and war industry is a major polluter and carbon emitter).

Further, the emphasis on population reduction as a climate change solution assumes a steady increase in carbon consumption per person, and plays into the hands of industry lobbies who are unwilling to limit their carbon emissions, similarly blaming supply and demand. At the Global Humanitarian Forum, Roger Martin contradicted his earlier point that population reduction means carbon reduction when he said, 'every person not born in the future means there's more carbon for the rest of us', implying more concern over the prolonged consumption based wealth of the West, than the damaging planetary effects of increasing carbon use and emissions.

In May 2009, a Sunday Times article 'Billionaire club in bid to curb population' showed that business leaders and wealthy individuals were jumping on the population reduction train, identifying the growing population as the number one social and environmental issue (and one which they argue is mostly the fault of the developing nations).

Guardian columnist George Monbiot criticised the OPT's aims, claiming that global population increase 'pales into insignificance when compared with the effect of increased consumption and economic growth.' He references a paper published in the scientific journal 'Environment and Urbanization' in Sept 2009 by David Satterthwaite of the International Institute for Environment and Development , which concludes that the total environmental impact does not equal population x affluence x technology, as previously believed, but instead equals CONSUMERS times affluence times technology. Monbiot notes that 'many of the world’s people use so little that they wouldn’t figure in this equation. They are the ones who have most children.' 'Around one sixth of the world’s population is so poor that it produces no significant emissions at all.'

He concludes that the OPT is an example of 'the worst form of paternalism, blaming the poor for the excesses of the rich.' 'It’s time we had the guts to name the problem. It’s not sex; it’s money. It’s not the poor; it’s the rich.'

OPT view on consumption levels

The OPT website does address levels of consumption in affluent countries, saying:

OPT's overall task is to enable people to recognise the links between the quality of life and environmental destruction and (a) high population levels; (b) wasteful consumption; and (c) poor technology. OPT concentrates on (a) because other environmental organisations dangerously neglect this component. In addition it is a subject which until recently has been shunned by the media. Seeking to reshape people's reproductive behaviour, however democratically, involves the intimate decisions of individuals and is seen as an infringement of human rights. OPT believes that all other human rights and needs will suffer if this issue continues to be ignored.

The OPT holds the view that addressing environmental and carbon footprint is needed but that it will not be enough without population reduction:

The global footprint is an average of a wide range of values ranging from 0.65 gha/cap (Afghanistan), through 4.8 gha/cap (Europe) and 9.6 gha/cap (USA), up to 10.2 gha/cap (United Arab Republic). According to the GFN, the 956 million population of the high-income countries have a footprint of 6.4 gha/cap which is eight times higher than that of the 2.3 billion inhabitants of the lowest-income countries (footprint = 0.8gha/cap.) An estimate by Andrew Ferguson, Editor of the OPT Journal, is that if the 956 million people in the developed world cut their footprint by two-thirds, it would still not balance the effect of the lowest-income 2.3 billion increasing their footprint by half of the per capita cut in the developed world.

UK population reduction policy

The OPT says:

OPT calculations suggest that even if we comprehensively greened our lifestyles, the UK could only support 27 million people – less than half its present population – from its own resources. It’s tempting to think we can always buy our way out of trouble but apart from being grossly unfair to poorer people in developing countries, this would be an exceptionally high-risk strategy in a world of growing hunger and increasing resource nationalism.

The OPT advocates stabilising and then reducing the UK population to an 'environmentally sustainable level' by:

• Zero net migration (balanced by allowing the same number of people into the country as the number who leave each year);

• A reduction in unplanned pregnancies, particularly among teenagers, where they are the highest in Europe;

• Encouragement to parents to voluntarily "Stop at Two" children to reduce the impact of family size on population growth and the environment.

OPT argues that the UK has outstretched its carrying capacity and cannot sustainably support its current population with is limited resources. Others (for example, Monbiot, above) argue that it is the current unsustainable level of resource consumption that is the problem, and we need to cut down our consumption and wealthy and wasteful lifestyles, not addressing population as the main or governing issue.

Teresa Hayter, in her book, Open Borders: The case Against Immigration Controls, argues against strong migration controls, saying that they deny the human rights of refugees and economic migrants whose own countries may have suffered from British wars or exploitative companies.

Contraception as carbon offsetting

In December 2009 OPT made headlines by suggesting that reducing population growth in the global South (particularly Africa) will have a large impact on carbon emissions, with the least economic cost. Their report, "Fewer Emitters, Lower Emissions, Less Cost", said, 'every £4 spent on family planning saves one tonne of CO2. A similar reduction would require an £8 investment in tree planting, £15 in wind power, £31 in solar energy and £56 in hybrid vehicle technology.'

The calculations (carried out by London School of Economics MSc student Thomas Wire) found that 'the 10 tonnes emitted by a return flight from London to Sydney would be offset by enabling the avoidance of one unwanted birth in a country such as Kenya'.

The OPT has set up a carbon offsetting provider called Pop Offsets which will sponsor family planning programmes in countries with the highest birth rates (and lowest climate impact) to offset (and therefore promote the continuation of) carbon intensive companies and individuals.

In response, Friends of the Earth's Head of Climate Change Mike Childs said:

The idea of paying for birth control in developing countries to offset carbon-intensive lifestyles in rich countries is repugnant. Rich countries caused climate change and their reluctance to cut their own emissions is pushing the planet to the brink of climate chaos.

G8 countries make up 13 per cent of the world's population yet account for 45 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. The problem lies with high consumer lifestyles in the rich world - not with growing populations in poorer countries.

The critical challenge is reducing the massive over-consumption of resources by people in rich nations. Rich countries have a legal and moral responsibility to lead on tackling climate change by making huge and swift cuts in their own emissions.

Carbon offsetting is a neo-liberal market based solution to climate change, which advocates the continuation of carbon intense, and polluting industry and lifestyles in the West, offset by projects which aim to prevent or reduce carbon emissions, usually in the global South.

A BBC Horizon special hosted by David Attenborough on 9 December 2009 further explored the idea of population control for carbon reduction.

David Attenborough

The eminent naturalist and documentary maker David Attenborough lent his name to the OPT in April 2009. In December 2009 Attenborough hosted a special BBC 2 Horizon programme which promoted the trust's view that population is the 'biggest single environmental problem'. The programme argued that as the poorest nations necessarily "develop", they will (like us) consume and emit more carbon. This idea is substantiated by official figures which guide policy decisions at Copenhagen and other powerful bodies. For example, the Wall Street Journal announced in December 2009:

The International Energy Agency projects that nearly all the growth in global greenhouse-gas emissions over the next two decades will come from developing countries -- and that fully half of that total will come from China alone.

What these figures don't tell us is how much of those emissions are generated by outsourced industries which feed predominantly Western consumer needs. Neither do they shift from the assumption that the only way to develop is to emit, pollute and waste as much as we do in the West. They fail to address our own part in the poverty, resource scarcity and carbon emissions of the Global South.

The programme also praised the Green Revolution for feeding the current world population, and did not include a critique of the large social and environmental issues which resulted from this corporate led industrialisation of farming, which some argue has diminished our ability to feed ourselves and kept millions locked into poverty and dependent on corporate fertilisers and pesticides.

OPT's website includes a critique of harmful environmental practices, pointing out that:

• significant land loss is occurring as a consequence of rising sea levels, desertification, general soil erosion and exhaustion;
• ground water levels are falling dramatically in many countries as demand grows with affluence and population increase. China and India are recent cases in point.

However, it does not link this to a political analysis of the crucial impact of western corporations, institutes and development bodies in creating this situation.

Affiliations

The OPT is a partner in the Global Footprint Network.

Patrons

According to their website as of December 2009;

• Sir David Attenborough OM CH CVO CBE, Naturalist, broadcaster and trustee of the British Museum and Royal Botanical Gardens, Kew; and a former controller of BBC Two.
• Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta, Frank Ramsey Professor of Economics, University of Cambridge
• Professor Paul Ehrlich, Professor of Population Studies, Stanford University
• Dr Jane Goodall DBE, Founder, Jane Goodall Institute, and UN Messenger of Peace.
• Susan Hampshire OBE, Actress and population campaigner
• Professor John Guillebaud Former Co-chair of OPT, Emeritus Professor of Family Planning and Reproductive Health, University College, London. Former Medical Director, Margaret Pyke Centre for Family Planning.
• Dr James Lovelock CBE Scientist and environmentalist known for proposing the Gaia theory that Earth functions as an organism, and author of 'The Revenge of Gaia'.
• Professor Aubrey Manning OBE, President of the Wildlife Trusts and Emeritus Professor of Natural History, University of Edinburgh
• Professor Norman Myers CMG, Visiting Fellow, Green College, Oxford University, and at Universities of Harvard, Cornell, Stanford, California, Michigan and Texas
• Sara Parkin OBE, Founder Director and Trustee of Forum for the Future and Director of the Natural Environment Research Council and the Leadership Foundation for Higher Education and Head Teachers into Industry.
• Jonathon Porritt CBE, Founder Director of Forum for the Future and former Chair of the UK Sustainable Development Commission.
• Sir Crispin Tickell GCMG KCVO, Chancellor of Kent University, Director of the Policy Foresight Programme at the James Martin Institute, and former UK Permanent Representative on the United Nations Security Council

Board of Trustees

• Roger Martin, CHAIR OF TRUSTEES, was a senior diplomat, resigning 20 years ago; becoming a leading environmentalist in the South-West and serving on many green NGOs and quangos.
• Professor Stephen Bown Professor of Laser Medicine at University College London
• Harry Cripps MA MSc DMS CEng CEnv FIChemE MEI, chemical engineer, energy efficiency consultant and chartered environmentalist
• Dr Pippa Hayes is a full-time general practitioner in Devon and mother of two teenage boys.
• Rosemary Horsey is married to a doctor with two children and four grandchildren, two of them adopted. She has worked as a volunteer in environmental NGOs for almost all her adult life.
• Garry Jones BA MA (Cantab) works for a major eNGO, encouraging a greater connection between people and environment. He is also actively involved in the local voluntary sector in Staffordshire.
• Simon Ross is an established management consultant providing organisational strategy and performance improvement to the public and private sectors.
• Alan Stedall is an IT Director and has led a number of large-scale systems projects for several UK businesses.
• Yvette Willey, Company Secretary, Treasurer and Membership Secretary. Yvette Willey has been with OPT since its foundation and is a businesswoman with treasury and accounts experience.

Advisory Council

• Patrick Curry PhD lives in London and lectures in Religious Studies at the University of Kent. He is the author of 'Ecological Ethics: An Introduction', Polity, 2006.
• Martin Desvaux PhD CPhys is a physicist experienced in life assessment techniques for power generation, petrochemical and plant, and formerly a director of ERA Technology and a Trustee of OPT. He now researches ecological issues.
• Nick Reeves, Executive Director of the Chartered Institution of Water and Environmental Management (CIWEM) and writer on environmental affairs.
• John Rowley, Founder/Editor of www.peopleandplanet.net and former Editor, People magazine (International Planned Parenthood Federation)
• William Ryerson (USA), Founder and president of Population Media Center, William Ryerson has worked to promote population stabilisation for four decades, with an emphasis on social change communications.
• Alastair Service CBE, former Chairman of the Family Planning Association
• Valerie Stevens former Co-chair and Chair of OPT, Valerie Stevens also worked in Friends of the Earth for 20 years, five of them spent as an elected member of the board of directors, and has long experience of political campaigning.

Formers member of advisory council

• Catherine Budgett-Meakin, Senior Advisor, Population & Sustainability Network (supported by the Margaret Pyke Memorial Trust). Listed as a member of the advisory council on OPT website, version updated 6 February 2006, no longer a member by May 2010
• Martin Chilcott, Chairman & CEO, Meltwater Ventures & 2degrees. Listed as a member of the advisory council on OPT website, version updated 6 February 2006 By May 2010 he had resigned.
• Rosamund McDougall, Former Co-chair and Policy Director of OPT, writer and speaker on population issues, publisher, international financial journalist (The Banker, Financial Times) and campaigner (Family Planning Association). Listed as a member of the advisory council on OPT website, version updated 14 Dec 2007. No longer a member by May 2010.
• Rajamani Nagarajah, Health and development consultant to the European Commission and former Director of Population Concern.Listed as a member of the advisory council on OPT website, version updated 6 February 2006. By May 2010 he had resigned.

Others

• David Nicholson-Lord, listed as "research associate" on OPT website updated 14 December 2007. Described as "OPT policy director" in an OPT article, "Population growth threatens UK’s future", on the OPT website as at May 2010. He is former environment editor, Independent on Sunday, Deputy Chair of the New Economics Foundation and Chair of the Urban Wildlife Network. As of May 2010 he is no longer a policy director of the OPT, nor does he have any official position at the OPT.

• David Burton, an environmental strategist and member of the Optimum Population Trust. Wrote Guardian article advocating carbon offsetting through contraception measures.

Funding

OPT states that it is financed by its members, that it receives funding neither from the government nor from any political or business interests, and that it is not affiliated to any other organisation (except as a partner in the Global Footprint Network).

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